Well, I could’ve told you that…

We’ve all been its victims. We ‘knew it all along’; we look back on events and can clearly see that something was obviously going to happen. Or at least, you ‘knew it all along’ now that it’s happened. This is the weird world of ‘hindsight bias’: when we convince ourselves that an event—maybe a football score or an election result—was more predictable than it really was after you know the outcome. On the surface it may seem harmless enough, though annoying if you’re on the end of someone else’s ‘I could’ve told you that’, but it can be a real problem. It can stop us learning from our mistakes and make us overconfident. And can we do anything about it? Psychologists studying hindsight bias have come to the conclusion that there are three different levels that combine to give the overall effect; each of these levels stacks up: ‘Forseeability’ on ...(Read More)